Degens Are Betting on Whether Trump Will Smile for His Mugshot in Georgia

As former President Donald Trump prepares to be arraigned in Georgia following his fourth criminal indictment, crypto gamblers on the betting site Polymarket are ponying up to predict whether he will crack a smile during a potential mugshot.

The Republican frontrunner for 2024 and 18 of his allies were indicted in Georgia’s Fulton County on Tuesday, faced with racketeering charges in connection with trying to overturn his 2020 election loss in the state, per the Associated Press.

On Polymarket, a contest created on August 2 has garnered nearly $25,000 in bets. As of this writing, a 76% chance that Trump remains stoic in his front-facing mugshot is penciled in. It will resolve “no” if a mugshot is not released by the end of September.

A possibility that the contest could be resolved before its deadline emerged late on Tuesday when Fulton County Sheriff Pat Labat signaled to WSB-TV that Trump should come prepared to face the camera at his upcoming arraignment.

​​“Unless somebody tells me differently, we are following our normal practices, and so it doesn’t matter your status, we’ll have a mugshot ready for you,” he said.

In New York’s Fulton County, Sheriff Richard Giardino told Decrypt that chances are slim Trump cracks a smile for the cameras. Based on years of experience as a Judge and District Attorney in upstate New York, Giardino said Trump’s booking will likely “hit home” as he stares down the lens.

“He’s not going to be smiling when they take his picture,” he said. “When he gets a booking photo, it’s not going to be amusing—I just think it’s too serious for him.”

The Sheriff’s Office in Fulton County, Georgia did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Decrypt.

So far, Trump’s mugshot has been elusive, even in the wake of three other criminal indictments.

He didn’t have his photo taken in April when he was arraigned on 34 counts of falsifying records in New York, per CBS News. Additionally, a so-called mugshot ban instituted in New York in 2019 restricts public and media access to arrestee photos.

While no such stipulation exists in Florida, where Trump was arraigned on 37 counts related to sensitive documents in June, the former president did not have his photo taken there either, per CBS News. 

The same applied to Trump’s arraignment in Washington D.C. earlier this month, where the former president pleaded not guilty to charges in connection with the January 6 insurrection. The U.S. Marshalls Service told NBC News an existing photo of Trump would be used for his booking records instead.

Whether a mugshot of Trump could ever come is a question captured in a separate Polymarket contest that’s amassed $47,000 in bets. As it stands, degens have priced in a 60% chance that Trump’s mugshot will be released by September 1.

The contest stipulates that it will resolve “yes” regardless of the means through which a mugshot is released, whether that’s through official channels or a potential leak.

However, the hint of a grin or slight smirk could potentially mire the aforementioned Polymarket contest with controversy, as previous wagers on the website have faced scrutiny. For example, a contest on whether the missing Titanic submarine would be found was disputed twice after pieces of the vessel’s wreckage indicated “yes.”